Converging the Web and the PC
The Future Is About Cross-Service Integration
Companies are putting all the old PC applications onto the web. We will need PCs in the future, but they will look radically different.
The PC Data Management Problem
Public computing today involves connecting a PC to the internet via an internet service provider (ISP), using search engines, web services and uploading and downloading data. This interaction is done with a web browser, which is the main interface to the web.
Many startups are busy putting up conventional PC functionality (like file storage from Dropboks) and applications (such office-suite functionality from Zoho) onto the web so that users can more easily share information and gain access to it from anywhere that has a web connection. Such companies are betting the farm that individuals and corporate customers choose them to host all of their web-based data.
This has generated a management problem. Before the web, individuals had to manage their own PC. Now they have to manage a much bigger PC and have to track and manage all their online services.
The solution to this problem is to put everything onto the web.
Everything On The Web
Imagine a PC that is just a hardware interface to the network, with a large screen, mouse and keyboard. There is no local hard-disk and there's only enough memory to operate the local hardware. When the PC is switched on, the boot sequence automatically connects to an internet service provider (ISP) and downloads the minimal operating system it needs to function. This removes the problem of having a local operating system that has to be updated with endless patches, and it opens up the possibility of distributing new functionality at the boot stage, e.g., more powerful encryption to protect online purchases.
The user then logs on. The username and password are remembered by the ISP which uses them to transparently log into any webservices. The user is then presented with a desktop, much like those used today; however, everything (all files and folders, menus and applications) are hosted remotely. When the user plays some music, opens an email, uploads some photographs, chats online or changes their profile in a social networking site, all of this is handled remotely by the websites and web services of the internet of tomorrow.
If the computer above sounds too far fetched, it isn't, it already exists. It's called the SunRay and is available from Sun Microsystems. The SunRay has been designed to be used in a corporate environment and so can't be connected to an ISP in the way it is described above. However, the SunRay proves that such an approach is possible. In fact, when the mouse is moved on a SunRay, it is the server that is calculating the cursor's position, not the local hardware.
This scenario is extreme, but it does have its advantages. All data is stored by the web service provider who can ensure it is backed-up and secure. The login and authentication problem is solved, the credentials the user gave the ISP can be used to look up other permissions that can be used to give the user access to the web sites and services. This approach solves the PC virus problem as there is no PC to infect. However, the user does have to give up control of their data. Not only does the user have to believe that the service provider can keep their data secure, the user has to trust them with their data. Issues of trust prevented a wide-spread adoption of Microsoft's Passport technology as people were concerned with the amount of information that could be collected about them. The ISP also has to be capable of providing this service, 24x7.
Ubiquitous High-Speed Net Access
The biggest hurdle to adopting such an approach is the wide-spread availability of high-speed net access. As of January 2007, the US had only 52% broadband penetration with an average bandwidth of 1.9 Mbps. In contrast, South Korea has 89% penetration and an avergae bandwidth of 45 Mbps.
Companies such as Microsoft, Dell and their suppliers would not be best-pleased with the above kind of world; however, Google, Dropboks and Zoho would love to see it. The next computing battle will be played out on the web and it will be all about cross-service integration. Whoever gives the user the seamless experience described above will win.
